Career
Path Forecast
According to the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
employment of physicians and surgeons is projected to grow 22 percent
from 2008 to 2018, much faster than the average for all occupations. Job
growth will occur because of continued expansion of healthcare-related
industries. The growing and aging population will drive overall growth
in the demand for physician services, as consumers continue to demand
high levels of care using the latest technologies, diagnostic tests, and
therapies. Many medical schools are increasing their enrollments based
on perceived new demand for physicians.
Despite
growing demand for physicians and surgeons, some factors will temper
growth. For example, new technologies allow physicians to be more
productive. This means physicians can diagnose and treat more patients
in the same amount of time. The rising cost of healthcare can
dramatically affect demand for physicians’ services. Physician
assistants and nurse practitioners, who can perform many of the routine
duties of physicians at a fraction of the cost, may be increasingly
used. Furthermore, demand for physicians' services is highly sensitive
to changes in healthcare reimbursement policies. If changes to health
coverage result in higher out-of-pocket costs for consumers, they may
demand fewer physician services.
Opportunities
for individuals interested in becoming physicians and surgeons are
expected to be very good. In addition to job openings from employment
growth, openings will result from the need to replace the relatively
high number of physicians and surgeons expected to retire over the
2008-18 decade.
Job prospects should
be particularly good for physicians willing to practice in rural and
low-income areas because these medically underserved areas typically
have difficulty attracting these workers. Job prospects will also be
especially good for physicians in specialties that afflict the rapidly
growing elderly population. Examples of such specialties are cardiology
and radiology because the risks for heart disease and cancer increase as
people age.
However,
because physician training is so lengthy, employment change happens
gradually. In the short term, to meet increased demand, experienced
physicians may work longer hours, delay retirement, or take measures to
increase productivity, such as using more support staff to provide
services. Opportunities should be particularly good in rural and
low-income areas, as some physicians find these areas unattractive
because of less control over work hours, isolation from medical
colleagues, or other reasons.
Note: Some resources in this section are provided by the US Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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